Director of National Intelligence James Clapper and Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency Lieutenant General Vincent Stewart testified on Worldwide Threats before the Senate Armed Services Committee on Tuesday. Clapper described the threat assessment as his ‘litany of doom.’ This post will cover the dense opening statements provided by each witness, and a follow-up post tomorrow will distill the remainder of their testimony.
A Complex World
Director Clapper opened the hearing with a stark depiction of climate change, migration displacement, infectious diseases, among other diverse threats. He stated that “unpredictable instabilities have the new normal, and this trend will continue for the foreseeable future,” echoing the Army’s Operating Concept of a ‘Complex World.’ Clapper also stressed the uncertainty associated with technological developments such as the Internet of Things and Artificial Intelligence.
Cyber Capabilities – A Growing Club
Clapper dedicated significant time to the cyber-capabilities of Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, and non-state actors such as ISIL. “As a non-state actor, ISIL displays unprecedented online proficiency,” he added. This includes hacking, posting Personal Identifying Information of service-members/government officials, recruiting and propaganda. Cyber issues will continue to rise to the top of the threat-list, as more states and groups acquire and sharpen offensive capabilities.
The Continuing War On Terror
Clapper stated that “there are now more Sunni violent extremist groups; members and safe havens than at any time in history…at least 38,200 foreign fighters, including at least 6,900 from Western countries, have traveled to Syria from at least 120 countries” since 2012.
This news is disheartening in light of the decade-long efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan. Clapper assessed that ISIL now has eight established branches and several more emerging ones, labeling it the “preeminent global terrorist threat.” He repeated familiar phrases that ISIL’s leaders are “determined to strike the U.S. homeland…although the U.S. is a much harder target than Europe.” ISIL is not the only concern, however.
Clapper affirmed that “Iran continues to be the foremost state sponsor of terrorism.”
He also stated that Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and Al-Nusra Front in Syria remain potent branches of the terror group.
Clapper assessed that “Afghanistan is at serious risk of a political breakdown during 2016, occasioned by mounting political, economic, and security challenges.” Stewart cited the struggle of Afghan security forces to “adapt to a lack of coalition enablers and a high operational tempo.” He assessed that insurgents have continued to expand their influence in rural areas of Afghanistan, frustrating coalition progress.
Nuclear Threats
North Korea, Russia, China and Iran topped the list of state actors with growing nuclear capabilities. North Korea is continuing to “produce fissile material and develop a submarine-launched ballistic missile,” in addition to a long-range inter-continental missile. They also made headlines for launching a satellite this week.
Russia was described as having the “largest and most capable foreign nuclear-armed ballistic missile force,” in addition to developing “A cruise missile that violates the Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. China was noted for continued modernization efforts with its nuclear arsenal, including its quest “for a secure, second-strike capability.”
Finally, Iran and the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action for monitoring its nuclear progress were discussed.
Russian and Chinese Aggression
Clapper labeled Russia and China as posing the greatest threat to the United States. Russia was noted for its military projection power exhibited by its subtle operations in Ukraine and its overt involvement in Syria. Clapper assessed that the continued expansion “demonstrated the improvements in Russian military capabilities and the Kremlin’s confidence in using them.” While they noted the economic woes Russia faces with plunging oil prices, Clapper assessed that Russia will “be sustaining their commitment to their aggressive modernization program.” Stewart predicted that Russian military activity will continue at all-time high levels in Syria, Ukraine, and the Arctic.
Officials tagged China for its military growth, cyber-espionage, and continued construction of man-made islands in the South China Sea. Stewart noted the reforms and augmentation of the Chinese military, including the development of “the world’s largest and most comprehensive missile force.” They continue to sharpen Anti-Access/Area-Denial (A2AD) capabilities with cruise missiles and anti-ship ballistic missiles, deterring U.S. naval forces in the Pacific.
Space Jams
Finally, I want to call attention to the officials’ discussion of developments in space. Stewart stated that China and Russia are developing technology to enter the domain and deny access to the U.S. He added that “both countries are conducting anti-satellite research and developing anti-satellite weapons, making the space domain increasingly competitive, contested, and congested.”
The idea of ‘space as a domain’ may sound silly to some, but satellites play a critical role in military operations. Consider if GPS systems were disabled or destroyed in a conflict: U.S. Army forces reliant upon Blue Force Tracker and DAGR (or civilian Garmin if you prefer) technology would lose all electronic reference. Many ISR assets are also dependent upon satellites for GPS and telemetry.
It is unusual for the top intelligence officials to give time in their testimony to discussing space operations, so keep an eye on this issue in the coming months.
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